How much for an Olympic medal?
Winning medals is never a cheap affair.Nations worldwide - including Malaysia - spend millions to ensure our athletes achieve some form of glory at major events especially the Olympics.
As the sporting world gears up for an epic encounter at the London Games, the New York Times offers a mathematical calculation to which event has better prospects at winning medals.
How Much for an Olympic Medal?
By NATE SILVER
It’s been almost a decade since the publication of “Moneyball,” Michael
Lewis’s famous book-turned-movie about how the small-market Oakland
Athletics used statistical artistry to compete against their (much)
richer rivals. Billy Beane is still the A’s general manager, but here’s a
modest proposal for his next act. He could become the head of another
budget-strapped sports organization like, say, the Olympic Committee of
Kyrgyzstan — or another small-market country with limited resources.
Bishkek is nice this time of year!
How might Beane turn “moneyball” into “medalball”? Channeling him, I’ve
identified three measures that, when weighted equally, suggest the
sports in which the Kyrgyzstans of the world could direct their energy
and resources to maximize their medal count. The first one, economic
balance, shows the wealth of Summer Olympics medal winners — as measured
by their countries’ per capita G.D.P. — since 1996, the year my
analysis begins. The second one, competitive balance, indicates how much
a sport is dominated by a few countries. The final measure, medal
abundance, indicates the number of medals awarded per competitor. The
formula basically comes down to finding a sport that is cheap to compete
in, isn’t already dominated and gives out a disproportionate number of
medals. It suggests how an upstart Olympic nation can reach the podium a
few times more often.
FIND A CHEAP SPORT
The average medal winner comes from a country with per capita G.D.P. of
$27,000 in today’s dollars, which is well above the worldwide average of
around $11,000. But wealthy nations haven’t claimed every sport.
Indonesia has won many medals in badminton; Belarus and Ukraine are
powers in rhythmic gymnastics. I’ve ranked sports by the average per
capita G.D.P. of medal winners since 1996 and listed the top and bottom
three below. The lower the number, the better the chance for a smaller
or poorer country to succeed.
Lowest G.D.P. per Medal Winner
1. Rhythmic Gymnastics
$16,452
2. Weight Lifting *
$16,715
3. Badminton
$16,830
Highest G.D.P. per Medal Winner
32. Equestrian **
$39,834
31. Triathlon
$38,354
30. Swimming
$36,329
* Kazakhstan has won several weight-lifting medals.
** Even though
Kyrgyzstan, in the steppes of Central Asia, has a lot of horses,
equestrian events would be a questionable use of resources.
HOW GOOD ARE THE CHINESE?
Competitive balance, a favorite phrase of the baseball commissioner, Bud
Selig, examines the share of medals won by the three most dominant
countries in each sport. Badminton is favorable to poorer countries, but
Indonesia, China and South Korea have won 85 percent of the medals
since 1996. A medalball country should look elsewhere. Here, I’ve ranked
events by the share of medals won by countries outside the top three in
the sport. The higher the percentage, the better the odds for an
outsider.
Most Wide Open
1. Sailing *
71.3%
2. Rowing
70.8%
3. Tae Kwon Do
68.8%
Least Wide Open
32. Badminton
15.0%
31. Table Tennis **
16.7%
29. Rhythmic Gymnastics (tie)
25.0%
29. Beach Volleyball (tie)
25.0%
* The winds can
influence almost any outcome. Thirty countries (including Lithuania,
Israel and Hong Kong) have won at least one medal in sailing.
** China has won 30 of the 48 table-tennis medals since 1996.
NUMBER OF PLAYERS (per medal awarded)
Some sports are generous with their medals. Gymnastics allows athletes
to compete in multiple disciplines, wrestling awards four medals per
weight class and there is just less interest in sports like tae kwon do.
Others aren’t. Team sports like soccer require a lot of players for a
single medal; that’s expensive and illogical for a medalball country. So
I ranked the number of medals awarded in the 2008 Olympics, per event,
for every 10 athletes participating. The higher the number, the better
the chance of a medal.
Most Medals per Participant
1. Tae Kwon Do *
2.54
2. Gymnastics
2.14
3. Wrestling
2.10
Fewest Medals per Participant
32. Soccer **
0.13
31. Field Hockey
0.16
30. Handball
0.17
* During the 2008
Olympics, 32 tae kwon do medals were distributed among only 126
athletes. It awards two bronze medals per weight class.
** In 2008 there were six soccer medals awarded among nearly 500 athletes.
OLYMPIC BLING?
Billy Beane’s statistical holy grail was on-base percentage. Medalball,
however, doesn’t have one. Sports that seem favorable by one measure,
like badminton, are prohibitive by another. But wrestling, tae kwon do
and weight lifting would be Beane’s best bets. These sports, which tend
to rely more on brute physical strength than highly refined athletic
abilities, factored the highest by my criteria. A number of the most
unfavorable sports — including the bottom-ranked one, field hockey — are
team sports, or ones in which there is rich professional competition.
This analysis, however, is really just the tip of the iceberg. Further analysis of the competitors within
each sport could yield more opportunities. (Perhaps men’s skeet
shooting could prove especially medal-rich?) That said, here’s my index
for the easiest and hardest sports for a small-market country to medal
in.
FINAL RESULTS (It’s out of 10 points; 5 is average)
EASIEST SPORTS FOR A MEDAL
1. Wrestling 8.78
Thirty-five countries, including Kyrgyzstan, have medaled in wrestling since 1996.
Thirty-five countries, including Kyrgyzstan, have medaled in wrestling since 1996.
2. Tae Kwon Do 8.76
Though an Olympic sport only since 2000, it already has among the most diverse lists of medal-winning countries, including Afghanistan and Venezuela.
Though an Olympic sport only since 2000, it already has among the most diverse lists of medal-winning countries, including Afghanistan and Venezuela.
3. Weight Lifting 8.69
Its eight male (and seven female) weight classes give athletes of all sizes a chance. The poorer nations of Southeast Asia have done well in the lighter classes.
Its eight male (and seven female) weight classes give athletes of all sizes a chance. The poorer nations of Southeast Asia have done well in the lighter classes.
An extended list of the easiest sports to medal in:
4. Boxing *
8.26
5. Gymnastics
7.58
6. Judo
7.06
* Recent medalists include Tonga, Mongolia and Kazakhstan.
HARDEST SPORTS FOR A MEDAL
32. Field Hockey 1.45
India was once strong in this event, but wealthy nations like the Netherlands and Australia have stood atop the podium recently.
India was once strong in this event, but wealthy nations like the Netherlands and Australia have stood atop the podium recently.
30. Triathlon 2.38
The intense training has made it mostly a luxury for wealthier nations; Australia, Switzerland and New Zealand have medaled the most since it was introduced in 2000.
The intense training has made it mostly a luxury for wealthier nations; Australia, Switzerland and New Zealand have medaled the most since it was introduced in 2000.
31. Basketball 2.37
Rich nations are the only ones able to stand a chance against the United States in the Dream Team era.
Rich nations are the only ones able to stand a chance against the United States in the Dream Team era.
And more of the hardest:
29. Synchronized Swimming
2.54
28. Equestrian
2.59
27. Beach Volleyball *
2.63
* Switzerland is the only landlocked country ever to medal.
Why do we need studies? Are we ever going to believe in the results? When you have so many experts coming on TV commenting on everything under the sun (at least about sports)..you don't need data to tell you otherwise. Arena's recent coverage of SUKMA as a joke ...with journo's commenting on nutrition, training as if they had a multitude of degrees in that given field.....We have become a nation of rejecting findings that tell us the truth!
ReplyDeleteWe cannot use $$ to measure how many medals we will win! If we can, then a lots of other RICH nations already win a lot of medals.
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